Countdown to Iran

An American strike on Iran would launch World War Three. That's the plan, at least.

America has positioned one-third of its naval assets into the Middle East, and the super-carrier Gerald Ford has crossed the Strait of Gibraltar en route to the Arabian Sea. Not since Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003 has America assembled such “maximum lethality” – which suggests that the Americans are more interested in regime change than in negotiating leverage. On Polymarket, the odds of an American air strike before March 15th stand at fifty percent.

Round two will be different from last June’s 12-Day War, in which the Iranians and Americans choreographed a conflict. Diplomacy still has a chance, but the American demand that Iran abandons its ballistic missiles programs without sanctions relief is designed to be insulting. It is ominous that Trump’s envoys are Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, two Zionists close to Netanyahu.

When Trump assembled an armada against Venezuela, Maduro danced for peace. Now that it’s Iran’s turn, the Ayatollah Khamenei tweets for war, and threatens to sink American carriers. The Iranians partially closed the Strait of Hormuz for a few hours, signaling their intention to blockade the global economy. They also burned statues of Baal, broadcasting their belief that theirs is a war against the Great Satan.

It seems that the Iranian regime is on the precipice. Decades of sanctions have made Iran corrupt, fractured, and vulnerable. In January 2020, the Americans assassinated Qasem Soleimani without consequence. October 7^th surprised the Iranians more than the Israelis, and they were powerless to help their proxies. The fall of the Assad regime in Syria opened up an air corridor for Israel to bomb Iran with impunity. In the 12-Day War, Israel assassinated many high-level Iranian officials and scientists, revealing the depth of Mossad penetration into the highest echelons of power. Last month, protests roared across Iran, and security forces killed thousands. Given how easily Delta Force swooped in to abduct Maduro on January 3^rd, what fighting chance does the Ayatollah have?