The US-Iran End Game
This war ends with the rise of Pax Judaica.
We are but three weeks into this senseless and pointless war, and it seems certain now that the Americans will commit boots on the ground. The Pentagon is deploying an additional five thousand troops to the Middle East, and Netanyahu has re-appeared to say that the war must be won on the ground, not from the air. Trump has asked for two hundred billion dollars from Congress, signaling that he intends to fight a long war. (Since February 2022, the United States has provided $183 billion to Ukraine).
An empire in decline suffers from a lethal dose of hubris and desperation, and Trump seeks a knock-out punch. Trump started the war with no clear objective, and now he has decided upon an impossible objective: Control the Strait of Hormuz, and permit safe maritime navigation.
As I discussed last week, Kharg Island promises to the point of entry and escalation. With a daring assault on the island, Trump’s television brain hopes that he will regain the narrative, and stir the patriotic pride of Americans. With ninety percent of Iran’s oil exports in his very large and not small hands, Trump believes he can force Iran to negotiate a favorable peace.
As every military analyst has pointed out, it’s one thing to take Kharg Island, and quite another to hold it. The Marines will be sitting ducks, and the Iranians can besiege them with artillery. Tens of thousands of infantry will be necessary to secure the Iranian coastline, and hundreds of thousands will be necessary to hunt down Iran’s underground bases in the Zagros Mountains.
Meanwhile, the Iranians have proven that – if pushed too far – they could in one day mine the Strait of Hormuz, set ablaze the energy infrastructure of the GCC, and torpedo the global economy, which would result in revolutions, famines, and resource wars around the world. In retaliation for the Israelis bombing their natural gas field, the Iranians with one blow destroyed 17 percent of Qatar’s LNG capacity, resulting in at least $20 billion in revenue loss.
If you are a certified member of the global financial elite (which includes City of London, Wall Street, sovereign wealth funds, and the Bank of International Settlements), now might be a good time to panic. How will transnational capital respond to this Middle East quagmire?
Let us do a thought experiment. Let us pretend that this elite of central bankers, asset managers, and private bankers assemble an emergency meeting in Basel. Should they continue to prop the financial markets, the US dollar, and consumer confidence, or let them all nose-dive? Even before their private jets land, they should have all come to the same set of conclusions.